For a good discussion of the unreliability of Web page access statistics in general (including both statistics from server logs and counter statistics), see the document Why web usage statistics are (worse than) meaningless.
Darin McGrew has written a hit counter rant from a different perspective, making very good points.
Jukka Korpela
This document is essentially a footnote to
the discussion of counters
in
my document
So you want to create a home page?.